In writing the commentary to accompany the latest analysis of proved recoverable reserves of coal, there is the opportunity to provide a narrative that deals with the results on two very distinct levels. On one level, a review in terms of reserves, their location, notable reassessments from past surveys and the relationship between reserves and production/consumption, regional balance and trade flows.

But there is also a broader debate … what do ‘proved recoverable reserves of coal’ mean in terms of energy resources for today and tomorrow, in terms of energy availability and coal use?

We have seen some very significant changes within the coal industry since the last WEC Survey published in September 1998. Many of these changes reflect broader global issues, including trade competitiveness, global concentration, and market restructuring (particularly at country level, with continuing shifts from command to market economies for some major players).

The point was made in the 1998 Survey that the size of the resource base is not the restraining factor for coal to be able to continue supplying a considerable portion of world primary energy demand. At that time the restraining factor on coal’s participation in the supply of the world’s primary energy demand was identified as a question of the development of production facilities and infrastructure.

Looking now both with hindsight and from an assessment of the contemporary policy setting, the issues currently facing coal are much more in the context of international, regional and national environmental policy conditions relating to the use of coal.

In dealing with the specific reserves of coal, there is little change in the total world figures, just a slight overall increase on the previous Survey. This is a predictable outcome, given the maturity of the industry and the large amount of reserves relative to current rates of exploitation. The rough and ready explanation of a production level showing that exploitation can continue at current levels in excess of 200 years is correct in arithmetic terms, but of little consequence or value given the size of this number. The world is not going to run out of physically-available supplies of coal.

Continue...