Introduction

Some issues are daily fare in the newspapers, but solar energy, in its various forms, is not among them. From time to time in the past fifty years it has made the news, but usually in conjunction with an energy or environmental crisis. That was the case during the first oil shock, in 1973, and it is so today too, now that the public has become concerned about global warming and climate change.

But even when the papers do talk about solar energy, they find it hard to treat it in a reasonably complete way. Like so many other topical subjects, solar energy is a complex matter, but usually the amount of space it receives in the media is only enough for a summary description. Nonetheless, some statistical projections remain in people's minds. One that is often cited – e.g., in a report by Shell Renewables, a division of one of the world's largest oil companies – is that by the year 2050, one half of the energy used worldwide will come from solar and other renewable sources.

Back in 1952, a report prepared by the Paley Commission for U.S. president Harry Truman predicted a bright future for solar energy. Among other things, the Paley report estimated that 13 million solar homes would have been built by the early 1970’s – just when the world was hit by the first energy crisis of modern times. But the prospects outlined in the report quickly dimmed. Many people think this was due partly to the Atoms for Peace initiative, announced in 1953, which led countries all over the world to start programmes for peaceful uses of atomic energy.

In the past few years, however, modern solar technologies have been penetrating the market at faster and faster rates, and an optimistic view of the sector's future seems fully justified.

Nonetheless, past experience should make us aware of the fact that the most optimistic view of the future of solar energy could be set at naught by the appearance of an important invention or by unforeseeable events. Predicting the future is especially hard when the world is changing as quickly as it is in our day.

Can technological developments and the transition to a culture that is more aware of the need to safeguard the environment help create a world powered by the sun's energy?


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